The Euro has continued to perform poorly this week, although
not without minor signs that the currency is stabilising. The European Central
Bank (ECB) yesterday voted not to change interest rates, leaving them at 1.0%,
although ECB President Mario Draghi admitted that the Eurozone was experiencing
ââ¬ÅHigh uncertainty and downside risksââ¬Â, fuelling further speculation that they
would have to cut the rates later on this year.
The Euro did, however, see a slight resurgence against
sterling on Thursday, when the sales of Spanish bonds went far better than
expected. However, any gains were offset by the disappointing results of
Italian debt auctions. The 4.75 billion euros worth of debt fell below industry
expectations, and, in doing so, weakened the Euro further on Friday. This has
caused the Euro to be on the same levels against sterling that we saw last
week, giving us the best
rates for transferring pounds into euros since 2010. It must be pointed
out, however, that sterling is still very weak, and analysts expect the Euro to
recover against it, albeit slowly. However, with no clear resolution to the
crisis in sight, it is impossible to tell when this recovery will begin. The
fact that the Euro has remained at similar levels for the past weeks leads many
analysts to believe that it has stabled for the time being.
Sterling has had a surprisingly strong week on all fronts,
further repressing fears of recession. The Bank Of England defied expectations
and voted against any more quantitative easing for January, although many
believe more QE is necessary and that the BOE are simply putting it off until
February. Other UK data was negative, with manufacturing being down by 0.6%.
The Bank of England also voted to keep interest rates at 0.5%, although this
came as no surprise as theyââ¬â¢ve remained unchanged since April 2009. The UK has
also seen poor retail sales this month, with even larger businesses, such as
Tesco, reporting low sales figures for the Christmas period. Despite this, the
data wasnââ¬â¢t nearly as bad as expected, and combined with the lack of QE this
month sterling seems to be keeping itself stable and strong against an
ever-weakening Euro.
For the time being, as well as holding on to its strength
against the Euro, sterling had recovered greatly against the US Dollar,
managing to recover from a three month low. Not helping the Dollar has been
President Obamaââ¬â¢s decision to seek a further $1.2 Trillion rise in borrowing in
order to meet deficit costs. The Republican members of congress have, of
course, attempted to block it, and this being an election year, it is likely
the dollar will fluctuate rapidly in the months leading up to November; in the
last 24 hours Euro weakness has had a knock on effect of causing USD strength
to the tune of 2c against the Pound, not good news if you are looking for good rates for sending US Dollars.
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